Mortgage Rate Predictor

We’ve brought together some of the UK’s top advisers to predict where mortgage rates are headed. Use the panel’s mortgage predictions to help you take the guess work out of your next mortgage decision.

Essential Mortgage Data

Where Are Mortgage Rates Heading?

What Type of Mortgage Should You Take Out?

Meet the Panel

Essential Mortgage Data

3.34%

Current UK Average Mortgage Rate

The Change in Mortgage Rate

The UK’s Leading Mortgage Lenders

is the largest single mortgage provider, lending the most money to customers. Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, Sept 2015.

  • UK Average Mortgage Rate
  • Lloyds Banking Group
  • Nationwide
  • Barclays
  • HSBC
  • Santander
  • RBS
  • Other
3.34%
Current Average Rate
3.57%
Quarterly Prediction
3.8%
2 Year Prediction
4.61%
5 Year Prediction

Where Are Mortgage Rates Heading Next?

We lobbied the view of our expert mortgage panel, ranging from Mortgage Brokers to Mortgage Journalists to find out their view on where mortgage rates are heading. We asked them all for a quarterly prediction, 2 year prediction and finally a 5 year prediction. We collated these giving you an average prediction and a clear idea of future trends.

Summary

If you agree with our panel's view that rates are set to rise over the short, medium and long term then it makes sense to secure your new mortgage deal as soon as possible.

Top Expert Panel Comments

Dominik Lipnicki

I do not believe that there is a realistic prospect of mortgages becoming cheaper.

Colin Payne

I do see mortgage rates increasing ever so slightly over the next few months, so if you're in a position to re-mortgage do not delay.

What Type of Mortgage Should I Take Out?

Fixed Mortgage

The monthly payments are fixed over the initial period of the mortgage meaning that you will pay the same every month no matter what happens to the Bank of England Base Rate.

Tracker Mortgage

Your monthly payments track the Bank of England base rate meaning they can vary over time. Beware the Bank of England base rates can go up or down.

Summary

Our Experts' view is that mortgage rates will be rising over the next two to five years. Use our mortgage calculator to find out what would happen to your repayments if mortgage rates did rise to the predicted average of 4.61%. If you would struggle to pay the mortgage payments at the new level then it may be worth looking at fixing your mortgage, if you are happy to risk payments rising then you may want to look at a tracker.

Meet the Panel

Rate Predictions

1 Month 2 Year 5 Year

Dominik Lipnicki

Managing Director of Your Mortgage Decisions

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Bio

Your Mortgage Decisions is a team of mortgage consultants who have gathered a wealth of experience from working with some of the leading financial organisations in the UK.

Commentary

Luckily for the United Kingdom, many of the immediate Brexit vote risks have now passed and the economy is strong, if somewhat reliant on consumer borrowing to stay that way. I do not believe that there is a realistic prospect of mortgages becoming even cheaper. Lenders have costs associated with lending and for many this is as cheap as they can go, without losing money. Due to the weak pound, inflation is up and we must remember that the Bank of England’s main role is to keep that within agreed targets, which is why the BoE rate will not drop as some predicted late last year. Many are also becoming concerned that consumer debt is too high and whilst this is partly fuelled by confidence, but more so by cheap borrowing, if this increase carries on, there will be more pressure on the BoE to slow it down.

Joanne Atkin

Group Editor of What Mortgage Magazine

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Bio

What Mortgage is the UK’s leading monthly consumer mortgage magazine supplying potential home owners and home movers with mortgage and housing information for more than 30 years.

Commentary

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that Bank base rate “could move in either direction” – a rather unhelpful comment, but does that mean the rate will go up or down but will not stay at 0.25%? Regardless of what base rate does, mortgage rates in general have started to nudge upwards following all-time lows in 2016. The higher loan-to-value products, such as those requiring a 10% deposit, have risen a little more than the lower LTVs that need a 40% deposit. This applies to both fixed rate and tracker rates. Fixed rates mortgages are more popular but the way they are funded is becoming more expensive for lenders – so they have to pass that increase onto their customers. Having said that, lenders are still after market share so will continue to offer competitive products. Plus, mortgages rates are still really low by historic standards and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Colin Payne

Associate Director of Chalpelgate Private Finance

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Bio

Chapelgate Associates Ltd are whole of market mortgage consultants who pride themselves on delivering excellent advice and service. We advise in the areas of mortgages, protection and general insurance and comment in national press and personal finance websites

Commentary

Mark Carney recently said that bank rate could move either up or down (I am not sure they could move any other way!) but it just goes to show that predicting the course of interest rates is extremely difficult when the Governor of the Bank of England makes such a comment. Inflation hit a 42 month high in December with the consumer prices index hitting 1.6% and likely to increase further as the lower pound and higher oil prices start to feed through. Typically the Monetary Policy Committee would normally look to increase interest rates to control inflation yet given the uncertainty in relation to the Brexit negotiations and how these may impact on the economy, I believe they will be flexible in allowing the inflation rate to increase further to allow lower rates to continue to support the economy. That said, the cost of borrowing has increased slightly for lenders so I do see mortgage rates increasing ever so slightly over the next few months so if you're in a position to re-mortgage do not delay. However, rates will still remain incredibly low by historical standards for some time yet.

James Tucker

Managing Director of Twenty7Tec

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Bio

Twenty7Tec Group specialises in the build, delivery and maintenance of unique technology solutions designed to drive efficiency in process in today's lending market. Backed by venture capital firm Verso Capital, the company today supports some of the largest aggregator, intermediary and lender organisations in the UK, with a diverse array of technology systems that meet the needs of their stakeholders.

Commentary

When the Governor of the Bank of England suggests rates could go up or down from here, for a mere mortal, trying to make predictions becomes more guesswork than an exact science. That said, we're starting to see a slight creep upwards in swap rates, indicating potentially higher mortgage rates on the horizon. A 'hard' Brexit could yet disrupt that trend however, watch this space.