“Tangible signs” of economic improvement seen

A report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revealed that the majority of countries within its reach, including Britain, are seeing the start of a potential economic recovery.

The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is designed “to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles – fluctuations of economic activity around its long term potential level”.

The OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for May 2009 show potential recovery signals are emerging in Italy and France, with indications of troughs emerging in Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States, China and India.

The overall CLI for the whole OECD area increased by 0.8 points in May 2009 but was 7.3 points lower than in May 2008.

Digging deeper into the figures for May:

- The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.8 points 2009 but was 2.7 points lower than a year ago.

- The CLI for the United States increased by 1.0 point but was 9.4 points lower than a year ago.

- The Euro area’s CLI increased by 1.0 point but stood 4.7 points lower than a year ago.

- The CLI for Japan decreased by 0.3 point and was 14.1 points lower than a year ago.

- The CLI for Canada increased by 0.9 point but was 6.3 points lower than a year ago.

- For France, the CLI increased by 1.3 point and was 0.7 point greater than a year ago.

- The CLI for Germany increased by 0.5 point but was 11.8 points lower than a year ago.

- For Italy, the CLI increased by 1.7 point and stood 1.1 point greater than a year ago.

- The CLI for China increased 1.1 point 2009 but was 6.5 points lower than a year ago.

- The CLI for India increased by 1.4 point 2009 but was 4.4 points lower than in May 2008.

- The CLI for Russia increased by 0.7 points but was 20.7 points lower than a year ago.

The findings are good news for British consumers. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, finances have been stretched, unemployment levels have risen and credit such as loans and mortgages, has become more difficult to secure. The economic downturn has also been tough for savers, who have seen interest rates fall dramatically.